Mali Peace Agreement Teetering on the Brink of Collapse

 Mali, a nation already grappling with jihadist insurgencies and military rule, now finds itself at the precipice of a dire crisis as fierce fighting erupts between government forces and former separatist armed groups in the north. This escalation jeopardizes the fragile 2015 peace accord intended to integrate these rebels into the national army and decentralize state power. The deteriorating situation threatens to plunge the country into further chaos and has far-reaching implications for the entire Sahel region.

For over a decade, Mali has been battling local branches of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, whose influence has extended across the northern and central regions. As the government confronts these jihadist insurgencies, the military-led regime has unexpectedly declared itself "at war" with non-jihadist armed movements controlling significant portions of northern territory.

The armed groups embroiled in the conflict are primarily composed of Tuareg communities that have repeatedly rebelled against the Malian state since the country's independence in 1960. While they are not presently advocating for independence, their control over northern regions directly challenges the junta's commitment to expanding state sovereignty and territorial control.

The situation escalated further when the junta demanded the United Nations Peacekeeping Mission (MINUSMA) withdrawal, which has been present for a decade. In response, their forces have begun taking control of MINUSMA bases in areas disputed by the armed groups. This move has raised deep concerns, particularly as jihadist groups intensify their offensives and block access to northern towns, resulting in a staggering 400,000 internally displaced Malians and millions needing humanitarian assistance.

Efforts to resolve the crisis through dialogue have been unsuccessful, and the conflict has triggered a series of confrontations, with hundreds of families uprooted as rebel groups capture and pillage military bases while the army launches airstrikes. Despite the international community's prior involvement and support for the Algiers peace agreement signed in 2015, the document's implementation has remained sluggish.

The current situation resembles the 2012 Tuareg-led revolt, which led to separatists initially allying with jihadist groups before being marginalized by extremists. Notably, the junta refers to the Coordination of Azawad Movements (CMA) involved in the clashes as "terrorists" and accuses them of collaborating with jihadists. The CMA, however, insists that their actions are in "legitimate self-defence" rather than a pursuit of Azawadian independence.

A potentially major confrontation looms with the Malian military's advance towards the Kidal region. This crisis poses a significant challenge to the stability and security of Mali, particularly as the UN plans to complete its withdrawal from the country by the end of the year.

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