Goma has fallen: DRC cut ties with Rwanda as M23 takes greater control

 

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is engulfed in violence as M23 rebels, allegedly backed by Rwanda, advance deeper into the mineral-rich eastern region. The recent offensive has pushed the DRC government to sever diplomatic ties with Rwanda, marking a critical escalation in an already volatile situation. As the world watches, the crisis threatens to destabilise not just the DRC but the entire Great Lakes region.

M23’s Advance and the Fall of Goma

On January 26, 2025, the M23 rebel group captured Goma, a strategic city with a population of over 2 million. The capture came after the group issued a 48-hour ultimatum for Congolese forces to surrender. Reports indicate mass panic, with civilians fleeing in masses while the United Nations struggled to manage the humanitarian fallout.

The DRC government has labelled M23’s advance a "declaration of war" and accused Rwanda of direct involvement, allegations Kigali denies. Intelligence reports suggest that Rwandan Defense Force (RDF) troops secretly crossed into eastern DRC to bolster M23’s offensive, with senior Rwandan military commanders reportedly stationed in Gisenyi, near the border.

The historical Context: Ethnic Tensions and Mineral Wealth

M23, a predominantly Tutsi-led rebel group, emerged in 2012 with claims of protecting Tutsi communities in eastern DRC. However, its resurgence in more recent years has been allegedly linked to broader geopolitical interests, particularly access to vast mineral resources, including gold, cobalt, and tantalum. Many analysts argue that Rwanda’s support for M23 is driven by economic motivations, as the illicit trade in DRC’s minerals fuels Kigali’s economy.

The longstanding animosity between the two countries is rooted in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan Genocide. Rwanda has long accused the Congolese government of harbouring remnants of the Interahamwe militia, responsible for the genocide, while Kinshasa views Rwanda’s incursions as blatant territorial aggression.

Consequences and International Response

The conflict has led to one of Africa’s largest humanitarian crises. Over 658,000 people have been displaced since October 2024 alone, with limited access to food, water, and medical supplies. Goma’s resources are stretched thin, exacerbating tensions between refugees and local populations.

The international community has responded with condemnation but little tangible action. The UN Security Council convened an emergency meeting, urging "external forces" to withdraw from DRC, though it stopped short of naming Rwanda explicitly. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for Rwanda’s immediate withdrawal, a demand Kigali has dismissed.

Turkey has emerged as a potential mediator, with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan offering to facilitate peace talks. Meanwhile, the United States has deployed surveillance aircraft over the region to monitor the situation, signalling growing Western concern over the conflict’s trajectory.

The rapid fall of Goma raises fears that M23 will push further south, potentially targeting Bukavu, another key city on Lake Kivu. This escalation could trigger broader regional conflict, drawing in neighbouring countries and fuelling instability across the Great Lakes region.

The severing of diplomatic ties between the DRC and Rwanda complicates peace efforts. Unlike in 2012, when international pressure forced M23 to retreat, this time Rwanda appears determined to consolidate gains before external forces intervene. With both sides doubling down, prospects for a swift resolution remain bleak.

As regional leaders prepare for emergency talks, the fate of Goma and eastern DRC hangs in the balance. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy can coax the warring sides toward peace or if the region is doomed to another protracted war.