The Sudan Spill Over

 

The ongoing civil conflict in Sudan that erupted in April has led to a devastating toll, with thousands dead, millions displaced, and widespread violence. This conflict has taken a severe humanitarian toll, causing widespread international concern and a need for foreign intervention. Sudan's army chief warned the United Nations that months of war in his country could spill over into the region, and he called for international pressure to be placed on the paramilitary forces he is fighting, including their designation as "terrorists". It has the potential to spill over into neighbouring countries, primarily Libya and Chad, creating a complex web of security and stability challenges in the region.

The conflict in Sudan poses a significant threat to the situation in Libya, especially in its southern region known as the Fezzan. The conflict between Sudan's military and paramilitary leadership jeopardizes the repatriation of Sudanese mercenaries from Libya and hampers Libya's political transition efforts. The uncertainty in Libya and Sudan's deepening conflict will likely delay the country's political transition, exacerbating security risks and disrupting commercial trade relations between the two nations.

Libya relies on Sudan for coordination and data exchange to facilitate the return of Sudanese mercenaries and support bilateral trade. The presence of an estimated 11,000 Sudanese mercenaries in Libya in 2021, aligned with the Libyan National Army (LNA), further heightens the risks of instability in both countries. Sudanese fighters may return home, potentially using Libyan territory as a base for incursions, further contributing to Sudan's ongoing civil conflict.

A peaceful transition and reconstruction in Libya can potentially enhance the economic performance of Sudan by USD 22.7 billion over five years. According to UNESCWA, over the period 2021-2025, Egypt would gain $99.7 billion, Algeria $29.8 billion, Sudan $22.7 billion, and Tunisia $9.7 billion. The total gain of peace in Libya for the region would be $161.9 billion over the same period or an annual average of $32.38 billion in regional GDP gains. Conversely, continued conflict and violence in Sudan will dampen both political and economic prospects in Libya, raising concerns among investors about security and governance. The conflict in Sudan will likely lead to increased refugee flows into Libya, straining the country's political process amid rising insecurity and uncertainty.

The deteriorating security situation in Sudan also carries significant spill over risks for neighbouring Chad. The influx of Sudanese refugees, reduced security presence in border areas, and worsening humanitarian conditions pose challenges for Chad. Even before the recent conflict outbreak, approximately 400,000 Sudanese refugees were residing in Chad, and the UN estimated that over 250,000 more could cross into Chad as the conflict persists. Food insecurity is already acute in Chad, and this crisis is expected to worsen with the arrival of additional refugees.

The movement of refugees, security personnel, and weaponry across the Sudan-Chad border raises concerns about border insecurity and potential increased instability in Chad. Chad has been grappling with political transitions since the death of former President Idriss Déby, and the presence of armed groups and militias further complicates the situation. In addition to refugees, some soldiers and security forces have crossed the border from Sudan into Chad, exacerbating insecurity.

The spill over effect of the Sudanese conflict on neighbouring nations, particularly Libya and Chad, has far-reaching implications for regional stability, security, and humanitarian conditions. The ongoing conflict in Sudan threatens to disrupt political transitions, exacerbate economic challenges, and increase regional insecurity. International efforts to mitigate these risks and support peaceful resolutions are crucial to prevent further escalation of the crisis and its impact on neighbouring countries.

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