Future Reports

O n December 7, 2024, Ghana will conduct its presidential and parliamentary elections, a critical event in the country’s democratic journey. This election holds substantial importance for assessing Ghana's political stability, governance trends, and economic trajectory. As a leading democratic example in sub-Saharan Africa, the election reflects a maturing democracy, albeit with emerging complexities such as voter dynamics, socio-economic challenges, and increased political competition. Democratic Significance of the Election The upcoming election marks Ghana’s fifth presidential transition since its return to multiparty democracy in 1992. Ghana is lauded for its peaceful power transfers, even between rival parties like the New Patriotic Party (NPP) and the National Democratic Congress (NDC). Such transitions reinforce the nation's democratic norms and set an example for the broader region​. A growing share of swing voters underscores the evolution of Ghana’s electorate. ...

Mozambique is experiencing significant civil unrest following a contested presidential election held on October 9, 2024. The ruling party, the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO), declared victory, with candidate Daniel Chapo securing the presidency. However, opposition parties and portions of the electorate allege widespread electoral irregularities, sparking mass protests across the country. The unrest reflects broader frustrations with governance, economic disparity, and the concentration of political power. The election results awarded FRELIMO a substantial majority in parliament, marking its continued dominance since Mozambique’s independence in 1975. Opposition leader Venancio Mondlane and his party, Podemos, contest these results, citing their own vote counts, which show a significant lead for Mondlane. Independent and international observers, including the European Union, reported procedural irregularities such as alleged ballot stuffing and voter list tampering. M...

  In a landmark election result, Botswana’s ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) suffered a surprising defeat to the opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), ending a nearly six-decade hold on power. Since Botswana’s independence in 1966, the BDP has dominated the political landscape, leading the nation through phases of rapid economic development and stability. However, this year’s election result signals that the winds of change are sweeping through the diamond-rich southern African country. Voters have expressed their desire for a new direction, prioritising economic reform and job creation amid rising economic challenges. The BDP’s popularity has waned in recent years, largely due to economic stagnation, high unemployment rates, and perceived inability to address the concerns of younger generations. Despite the BDP’s long-standing status as a political mainstay, its failure to adapt to shifting economic conditions created discontent. Botswana’s heavy reliance on diamo...

In  a bold political manoeuvre, President Bola Tinubu recently reshuffled his cabinet, dismissing five ministers, reassigning ten, and nominating seven new candidates for Senate approval. While the presidency asserts that this move aims to boost “efficiency,” the reshuffle has deeper implications, reflecting Tinubu’s strategies to address political challenges, economic strain, and the need for regional inclusivity. With an election on the horizon in 2027, this reshuffle is as much a matter of governance as it is a strategic consolidation of power. This reshuffle reflects Tinubu's awareness of Nigeria's volatile political landscape and his attempt to shore up his position within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). Sources from the APC indicate that internal dissatisfaction has grown over the government’s economic performance and delayed reforms. Tinubu’s recent moves appear tailored to address these concerns, strengthening support from key party factions that are crucial...

The recent summit between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt has brought attention to a new alliance forming in the Horn of Africa and its surrounding regions. This collaboration comes at a time of growing tensions and shifting allegiances, particularly as all three nations being Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt have strained relations with their larger neighbour, Ethiopia. Although the leaders of these nations have downplayed the idea that this partnership specifically targets Ethiopia, the circumstances surrounding the alliance suggest otherwise, pointing to broader geopolitical concerns. Held in the Eritrean capital of Asmara, the summit marked the first visit by Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the country, where he met with his Eritrean counterpart Isaias Afwerki and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. While the official statement emphasised cooperation, security, and respect for sovereignty, analysts and observers have noted the deeper motivations behind the partnership. Th...

  In a landmark event, the Kenyan National Assembly voted overwhelmingly to impeach Vice President Rigathi Gachagua, accusing him of corruption and divisive ethnic politics. The historic impeachment marks the first time a sitting vice president has faced such a fate in the country, raising serious questions about the future of Kenyan politics. Gachagua, who has denied all charges, faces a crucial decision by the Senate on whether his removal will be finalised. The motion to impeach Gachagua, tabled by Mwengi Mutuse, was supported by 281 MPs, far exceeding the constitutional requirement of 117 MPs. A total of 44 MPs opposed the motion, and one abstained. The 11-count charge against Gachagua centered around accusations of corruption and acquiring properties worth 5.2 billion Kenyan shillings (approximately $40 million). He is also accused of using his wealth and political influence on fuelling ethnically divisive politics, especially in his support of protests in June 2024 against th...

The longstanding debate over Africa’s representation at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) took centre stage again during the latest UN General Assembly (UNGA) session. African leaders echoed a united call for reforms that would allow Africa a permanent seat at the UNSC. This call is rooted in a desire for greater inclusion and representation in global decision-making, particularly regarding issues affecting peace, security, and development. Yet, the road to achieving this is complex and fraught with challenges. The crux of the African leaders' argument is that the UNSC, established in 1945, no longer reflects the geopolitical realities of the world. African nations, many of which were under colonial rule at the time of the UNSC's formation, are now politically independent but still largely excluded from the Council's decision-making processes. This exclusion has had profound consequences. Africa, a continent often grappling with conflict and poverty, finds itself u...