"Shifting Sands: Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia Forge a New Path Around Ethiopia"

The recent summit between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt has brought attention to a new alliance forming in the Horn of Africa and its surrounding regions. This collaboration comes at a time of growing tensions and shifting allegiances, particularly as all three nations being Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt have strained relations with their larger neighbour, Ethiopia. Although the leaders of these nations have downplayed the idea that this partnership specifically targets Ethiopia, the circumstances surrounding the alliance suggest otherwise, pointing to broader geopolitical concerns.

Held in the Eritrean capital of Asmara, the summit marked the first visit by Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to the country, where he met with his Eritrean counterpart Isaias Afwerki and Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. While the official statement emphasised cooperation, security, and respect for sovereignty, analysts and observers have noted the deeper motivations behind the partnership. The core issues driving this alliance centre on Ethiopia’s growing regional ambitions, the dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), and Ethiopia’s controversial deal with Somaliland.

Ethiopia, a landlocked country, has long sought access to the Red Sea. In January 2023, it signed a maritime deal with Somaliland, a self-declared republic that broke away from Somalia in 1991 but has not been internationally recognised. The agreement allows Ethiopia to lease a stretch of Somaliland’s coastline for naval use. This move angered Somalia, which considers Somaliland part of its territory, viewing Ethiopia’s actions as an attack on its sovereignty. Somalia’s dissatisfaction with Ethiopia has pushed it closer to Egypt, which has its own long-standing dispute with Ethiopia over the construction of the GERD on the Nile River. Egypt fears the dam will reduce its share of water from the Nile, a resource on which it is almost entirely dependent.

Egypt and Ethiopia have been at odds over the GERD for over a decade, with diplomatic efforts failing to resolve the dispute. For Egypt, this new alliance with Somalia and Eritrea provides an opportunity to counterbalance Ethiopia’s influence in the region. Egypt’s support for Somalia has already manifested in a significant military deal signed in August 2023, which saw Cairo supply military equipment to Mogadishu, supposedly to help Somalia combat the militant group al-Shabab. However, this military cooperation also serves to strengthen Somalia in its dispute with Ethiopia, particularly over Somaliland.

Eritrea’s involvement in this alliance is equally significant. Though it was once an ally of Ethiopia, supporting Addis Ababa in its war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) from 2020 to 2022, relations have deteriorated. Eritrea was excluded from the peace negotiations that ended the conflict, and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s recent remarks about seeking access to the Red Sea have further strained relations. Eritrea, having fought a long and bloody war for independence from Ethiopia, views any attempts by Addis Ababa to assert control over the Red Sea region with deep suspicion.

The meeting in Asmara also touched on security concerns in Somalia, particularly the fight against al-Shabab. The three leaders agreed to increase cooperation in combating terrorism and ensuring Somalia’s territorial integrity. This cooperation could unsettle Ethiopia, which has thousands of troops in Somalia as part of its own efforts to fight al-Shabab. If Ethiopia views this new alliance as a threat, it could lead to further instability in the already volatile region.

What makes this alliance especially noteworthy is that it forms at a time when Ethiopia’s foreign relations are becoming increasingly complex. Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland has not only angered Somalia but also contributed to its isolation in the region. Moreover, its deteriorating relations with Eritrea and Egypt, both of which are key regional players, leave Addis Ababa vulnerable to diplomatic and economic pressure.

For Ethiopia, this alliance presents a dilemma. Its ambitions for greater regional influence, whether through the GERD or its desire for access to a seaport, are now being met with resistance from its neighbours. Addis Ababa must navigate these tensions carefully, lest it find itself facing a united front of countries determined to check its influence. Whether Ethiopia will double down on its current policies or seek to reconcile with its neighbours remains to be seen.

 The alliance between Eritrea, Somalia, and Egypt represents a significant geopolitical shift in the Horn of Africa. While the leaders of these nations may emphasise cooperation and security, the underlying motivations are visible. The timing points that they are united by their opposition to Ethiopia’s growing influence in the region. With disputes over the Nile, access to the Red Sea, and territorial integrity at play, this new partnership could significantly alter the balance of power in the Horn of Africa. As tensions loom, how Ethiopia responds to this evolving alliance will be pivotal.

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