GERD: Ethiopia’s Power Play and Egypt’s Existential Dilemma

On 9 September 2025 Ethiopia officially inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), a 5,150-megawatt hydropower project on the Blue Nile that Ethiopia bills as the continent’s largest single clean-energy investment and a pillar of its industrialisation strategy. The $4–5 billion project (built largely with Ethiopian funding) will dramatically increase Ethiopia’s generation capacity, while also re-shaping downstream hydrology for Sudan and Egypt; two states that see the Nile as central to their national security. Why Ethiopia wanted to build the dam — numbers and incentives Electricity deficit and development needs. Ethiopia has one of the lowest levels of modern energy access in the region: recent World Bank reporting shows Ethiopia still has a large share of the population without reliable Tier-1+ electricity access (roughly ~44% at the last multi-tier assessment), meaning tens of millions remain off-grid or under-served. The GERD’s ~5,150 MW of capacity is explicitly des...